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Russia-Ukraine Dispute Leads to Lowest Business Confidence Index Since 1994

Lukas Partners supports Creighton University Economics professor Ernie Goss, Ph.D., to create and distribute a monthly video that summarizes his Mid-America Business Conditions Index, a survey of supply managers in the nine-state Midwestern region that stretches from Minnesota to Arkansas.

You can view Dr. Goss’ February recap video at:

The February Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index rose above growth neutral for the 21st straight month and climbed from January. Although Dr. Goss says economic growth rebounded in February, key concerns remain from supply managers that include supply chain disruptions, finding and hiring qualified workers and rising input prices. These factors could limit growth potential, in addition to the Russian invasion into Ukraine which could lengthen supply chain disruptions and push commodity prices upward. The Russian-Ukraine dispute pushed the business confidence index to its lowest level since the Mid-America BCI survey began in 1994.

In the manufacturing sector, regional and national employment are still down from pre-pandemic levels while the U.S. Department of Labor’s January employment report showed an increase of 467,000 jobs. In terms of inflation, Dr. Goss says inflationary pressures remain very high and aren’t expected to cool until Q3 2022, at the earliest.

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