Lukas Partners supports Creighton University Economics professor Ernie Goss, Ph.D., to create and distribute a monthly video that summarizes his Mid-America Business Conditions Index, a survey of supply managers in the nine-state Midwestern region that stretches from Minnesota to Arkansas.
You can view Dr. Goss’ March recap video at: https://bit.ly/MidAmericaBCIMarch2022YouTube
The March Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index was surprisingly strong and had the highest reading since July 2021. According to Dr. Goss, the index was much stronger for the Mid-America region than the nation due to higher agricultural commodity prices and spill over into other industries across the region. However, he anticipates that high inflationary pressures will result in price increases for the rest of 2022.
Although Dr. Goss says business conditions were better than expected for March, economic growth will slow and potentially move into negative territory in the weeks and months ahead, especially if:
Oil barrel prices get as high as $100-$150 per barrel;
March employment report numbers drop below 100,000;
Supply chain disruptions continue and lengthen due to the Russian-Ukraine invasion; and
Supply chain bottlenecks, labor shortages and inflation result in interest rate hikes.