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Mid-America Region Faces Shortage of Goods for the Holiday Buying Season

Lukas Partners supports Creighton University Economics professor Ernie Goss, Ph.D., to create and distribute a monthly video that summarizes his Mid-America Business Conditions Index, a survey of supply managers. This is a leading economic indicator for the nine-state Midwestern region that stretches from Minnesota to Arkansas.

You can view Dr. Goss’ September recap video at:

The Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index has declined for four out of the past five months. Dr. Goss expects positive growth ahead in the nine Mid-America states but says the economy is slowing down, overall.

The greatest challenges supply managers will face over the next 12 months include supply chain bottlenecks, rising input prices, the coronavirus, and most importantly, hiring challenges.

Looking ahead to the holiday buying season, both supply managers and consumers will be impacted by a shortage of goods. Goss said to buy early and get it fast as consumers will see empty shelves and higher prices as shortages continue throughout the holiday buying season.

In regard to inflation, it will remain strong for the rest of 2021. Goss said he has never seen inflationary pressures like these at the wholesale level. As the economic growth continues, Goss said long-term interest rates will in higher in the fourth quarter, however, short-term interest rates will remain at record lows.

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